Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 118,702
2 South Dakota 107,961
3 Iowa 85,669
4 Wisconsin 85,424
5 Nebraska 81,978
6 Utah 79,565
7 Rhode Island 76,637
8 Tennessee 76,067
9 Idaho 74,395
10 Wyoming 73,223
11 Montana 72,996
12 Illinois 72,070
13 Kansas 71,433
14 Minnesota 71,116
15 Indiana 70,526
16 Arkansas 67,946
17 Nevada 67,318
18 Alabama 67,264
19 Oklahoma 67,127
20 Mississippi 66,425
21 Arizona 64,620
22 Missouri 64,112
23 New Mexico 62,987
24 Louisiana 62,588
25 Alaska 60,476
26 Florida 56,943
27 Texas 56,294
28 Kentucky 55,977
29 Colorado 54,768
30 Georgia 54,623
31 Ohio 54,497
32 South Carolina 54,004
33 Delaware 53,013
34 Michigan 50,464
35 California 49,818
36 New Jersey 49,793
37 Massachusetts 48,048
38 Connecticut 47,390
39 North Carolina 46,838
40 Pennsylvania 45,085
41 New York 44,781
42 Maryland 42,289
43 West Virginia 41,702
44 District of Columbia 38,115
45 Virginia 36,843
46 Puerto Rico 32,416
47 Washington 30,493
48 New Hampshire 27,952
49 Oregon 24,916
50 Maine 14,687
51 Hawaii 14,469
52 Vermont 10,589

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Tennessee 1,219
2 Rhode Island 1,061
3 California 1,024
4 Arizona 895
5 Oklahoma 821
6 Indiana 694
7 Idaho 674
8 Alabama 673
9 West Virginia 655
10 Ohio 644
11 Utah 635
12 Mississippi 624
13 Pennsylvania 618
14 Louisiana 611
15 New Hampshire 588
16 Connecticut 577
17 Massachusetts 575
18 Nevada 561
19 North Carolina 557
20 Georgia 548
21 Arkansas 544
22 Texas 539
23 Kentucky 525
24 Wyoming 513
25 Kansas 510
26 Delaware 509
27 New York 500
28 New Mexico 499
29 Missouri 486
30 South Carolina 486
31 Nebraska 485
32 New Jersey 485
33 Florida 463
34 Illinois 454
35 Virginia 449
36 South Dakota 441
37 Montana 408
38 Colorado 407
39 Wisconsin 383
40 Minnesota 376
41 Maryland 371
42 Alaska 352
43 Iowa 352
44 Michigan 290
45 North Dakota 290
46 Puerto Rico 281
47 District of Columbia 263
48 Oregon 258
49 Maine 248
50 Washington 247
51 Vermont 141
52 Hawaii 93

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,063
2 New York 1,865
3 Massachusetts 1,712
4 North Dakota 1,632
5 Connecticut 1,599
6 Rhode Island 1,583
7 South Dakota 1,561
8 Louisiana 1,539
9 Mississippi 1,508
10 Illinois 1,316
11 Michigan 1,234
12 Iowa 1,157
13 Indiana 1,126
14 Arizona 1,117
15 Pennsylvania 1,112
16 Arkansas 1,106
17 District of Columbia 1,054
18 New Mexico 1,050
19 Florida 966
20 South Carolina 966
21 Georgia 954
22 Nevada 919
23 Maryland 912
24 Texas 909
25 Tennessee 908
26 Alabama 907
27 Delaware 895
28 Missouri 891
29 Minnesota 878
30 Montana 843
31 Kansas 840
32 Wisconsin 838
33 Nebraska 797
34 Colorado 775
35 Idaho 736
36 Ohio 705
37 West Virginia 653
38 Wyoming 644
39 Kentucky 613
40 North Carolina 604
41 California 588
42 Oklahoma 566
43 Virginia 551
44 New Hampshire 482
45 Puerto Rico 435
46 Washington 422
47 Utah 366
48 Oregon 327
49 Alaska 254
50 Maine 225
51 Hawaii 197
52 Vermont 179

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 16
2 Rhode Island 16
3 Indiana 12
4 Iowa 12
5 Kansas 12
6 Missouri 12
7 Wyoming 12
8 Connecticut 11
9 Louisiana 11
10 Mississippi 11
11 Montana 11
12 South Dakota 11
13 Tennessee 11
14 Illinois 9
15 Pennsylvania 9
16 West Virginia 9
17 Wisconsin 9
18 Arizona 8
19 Michigan 8
20 Nebraska 8
21 Nevada 8
22 Kentucky 7
23 Massachusetts 7
24 New Mexico 7
25 District of Columbia 6
26 Idaho 6
27 Minnesota 6
28 New York 6
29 Ohio 6
30 Texas 6
31 California 5
32 Maryland 5
33 New Jersey 5
34 Puerto Rico 5
35 South Carolina 5
36 Alabama 4
37 Alaska 4
38 Delaware 4
39 Florida 4
40 Oklahoma 4
41 Colorado 3
42 North Carolina 3
43 North Dakota 3
44 Oregon 3
45 Georgia 2
46 Maine 2
47 Utah 2
48 Vermont 2
49 Virginia 2
50 New Hampshire 1
51 Washington 1
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 260,353 1 99
Norton Kansas 214,699 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 211,072 3 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 209,970 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 209,437 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 91,511 359 88
Richland South Carolina 58,974 1544 50
York South Carolina 48,448 2086 33
Orange California 41,809 2381 24
Pierce Washington 27,910 2812 10

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Richland South Carolina 774 1735 44
Davidson Tennessee 756 1773 43
York South Carolina 605 2065 34
Orange California 560 2148 31
Pierce Washington 340 2576 18

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons